Brexit Diary: One Last Battle as the Tories Teeter on the Edge of the Abyss

With electoral oblivion looming, Conservatives in Britain appear at a loss on how to alter course to stave off defeat. Surely none are so devoid of sense, as to deny how low party fortunes have sunk under Prime Minister Sunak?It reminds your Diarist of a passage from Sir Henry Maine. “The blindness of the privileged classes in France to the Revolution which was about to overwhelm them furnishes some of the best-worn commonplaces of modern history,” he wrote in “Popular Government.”“There was no doubt much in it to surprise us,” Sir Henry continued. “What King, Noble, and Priest could not see, had been easily visible to the foreign observer.”Fortunately, not all Tories are as oblivious as the Ancien Régime — though many do seem to share an affinity for its fin de siècle debauch, in disavowing conservative principles on low taxes, border security, and a small state, while adhering to ideological nostrums on climate, energy, and war with Russia.Worse, like the French Revolution, it is the people who are betrayed: First, by a Conservative government willfully frustrating the economic and social opportunities of Brexit, and, second, by the policies of a Labour opposition poised to assume power. The most damning thing is the people themselves sitting by and allowing events to “overwhelm” them.Three bye-elections to be held Thursday are the latest bellwethers of the general election that must be held no later than January 2025. Tories won these seats handily in December 2019; the prospects this time are grim.In Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson won with 52.6 percent of the vote, besting his rival by 7210 votes. In Selby and Ainsty, Nigel Adams won with 60.3 percent of the vote, besting his rival by 20,137 votes. In Somerton and Frome, David Warburton won with 55.8 percent of the vote, besting his nearest rival by 19,213 votes. Now, no Tories are expected to be elected.As ever, the British people may be more alert than their politicians to what should come next. In a survey conducted by Omnisis for the Sunday Express, 46 percent of respondents think Mr. Sunak should resign if the Government loses all three by-elections. Only 30 percent believe the premier should remain in harness, with the rest unsure.And why not? In the marketplace where consumers “vote” with every purchase, under-performing retailers lose their custom. Why should it be any different in politics? Only political rivals benefit by keeping an inept prime minister in office.At least one former Tory Cabinet minister agrees. “Everybody says you can’t change leaders with a year to go before the election,” the ex-minister told the Sunday Express. “But what do you do when you have a leader who is not cutting the mustard?”Letters of no confidence are one answer, sent to the 1922 Committee that manages the Conservative party, with an uptick come Friday. As I said this time last year, there is no point cashiering one leader if you lack a credible candidate waiting in the wings.Liz Truss, Boris Johnson’s replacement, was only slightly better than he, in respect of low taxes and economic growth. In turn, Ms. Truss’s replacement with Mr. Sunak was worse on all counts. Indeed, interest rates — the cause for alarm that forced her resignation — are even higher now, under her successor.Not to be overlooked, either, are electoral realities. The new leader must be prepared to meet the people at the outset. Gone are the days when it could be plausibly argued that voters elect a party platform, not a leader. That chestnut must be caressed to pass muster — Truss for Johnson and then, within weeks, Sunak for Truss doesn’t quite do it.There will be no political hat-trick for the Tories. Were Mr. Sunak to be replaced, decency (and any chance of salvaging political respectability) demands that his successor at 10 Downing Street would need to call a general election sooner rather than later.Are the Tories therefore beyond redemption? For my money, the only viable candidate as leader-in-waiting is Lord David Frost. Earlier this year, he signaled his intentions to resign from the Upper House and seek electoral office in the House of Commons. There’s no time like the present, I say.Not only did Lord Frost step away from Cabinet when he realized that Boris Johnson was betraying the promise of Brexit — a full half-year before his colleagues did in July 2022 — but he has best articulated the principles of “maximal liberty and minimal government.”In a monograph for the think tank Politeia, he wrote that “there is a very marked devaluation of the idea of freedom in Western societies,” and that “this country has become very collectivist.” Fearing that “the model of the self-reliant individual is in rapid decline,” Lord Frost opined that “the only way out of this is to change the politics, begin to reverse the trend of the last 50 years and get people taking responsibility for their only lives again.” Isn’t that the crux of Brexit?The same day Boris Johnson stood down from Westminster, MP Nadine Dorries voiced her intention to do likewise. She has yet to resign, though. At the general election of 2019, Ms. Dorries won 59.8 percent of the vote in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency, besting her rival by 24,664 votes. Mid Bedfordshire sounds like a bespoke riding for a Conservative leader and premier in the making. Yet it requires Ms. Dorries to step down and Mr. Sunak to step up — no small feat of character on his part — by “dropping the writ” to allow Lord Frost to offer himself on the hustings. Then, if the Prime Minister is forced from the party leadership, a worthy replacement is ready to hand, were Lord Frost successful in Mid Bedfordshire.With tactical skill, the Tories could win this one battle and prepare a war footing for the general election. All is not lost, but timing is everything. Sir Henry lamented “the blindness of the privileged classes.” If Conservatives can’t see what may be their last best hope for electoral salvation, they will be cast into electoral darkness, perhaps for years to come.BrexitDiarist@gmail.com

Brexit Diary: One Last Battle as the Tories Teeter on the Edge of the Abyss

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